How Pivt Works

Pivt's prediction engine analyzes every college basketball team using adjusted efficiency ratings — how many points a team scores and allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent quality and pace of play.

For every game, the model calculates a win probability by blending multiple signals: efficiency matchup analysis, power ratings, strength of schedule adjustments, and tournament-specific seed history.

It then compares its probability to the sportsbook implied probability. When the model sees a gap — when it believes a team is more likely to win than the odds suggest — that's a +EV (positive expected value) pick.

The pipeline runs daily: fresh team ratings from Barttorvik, live odds from five major sportsbooks, and a prediction model that auto-detects every upcoming game. No manual matchup lists — the system adapts to whatever's on the schedule.

Data quality is scored for every team. When the model lacks sufficient data on a matchup, confidence is automatically reduced. Bet sizing follows the Kelly Criterion for mathematically optimal bankroll management.